X-Events
Complexity Overload and the Collapse of Everything
By: John L. Casti, Ph.D.
Published: March 12, 2012
Format: Paperback, 336 pages
ISBN-10: 0062088297
ISBN-13: 978-0062088291
Publisher: William Morrow Paperbacks
"X-events of the human - rather than nature-caused - variety are the result of too little understanding chasing too much complexity in our human systems", writes pioneer of complexity science and systems theory, Senior Research Scholar at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, John L. Casti, Ph.D.,in his provocative and thought provoking book X-Events: Complexity Overload and the Collapse of Everything. The author describes the challenge of understanding and evaluating extremes risks to human society due to the increasingly unsustainable complexity of the systems.
John Casti recognizes the inherent fragility of our exponentially growing ever more complex society. For the author, this growing complexity is not only unsustainable, but that the various systems are interlinked and interdependent upon one another. The dependence on ever more technology to maintain the many intertwined systems multiplies their vulnerability to collapse due to some random and unexpected event.
John Casti presents these unexpected and outlier events as very real possibilities that would have a profound effect on civilization and on humanity itself. The author also points out that these unusual extreme events, that he calls X-events, are not well studied or examined. As a result, John Casti proposes the establishment and development of a the theory or this risk and potential disastrous shock to the systems.
John Casti (photo left) understands that as systems grow in size and complexity, they also become more fragile and vulnerable to collapse. While most people don't consider the possibility of catastrophic disasters, and usually consider technology to be the best solution, John Casti posits that complex technological systems are the problem. Indeed, the author is not describing a localized and readily containable disaster of the type with which people are familiar.
John Casti is providing risk analysis of calamities affecting civilization on a global scale. While each of the potential catastrophic events seems remote in isolation, when taken together and considered as interlinked components of an overall system, the risk factor grows exponentially. The author points out that to compensate for systemic flaws and weaknesses, the usual prescription is to apply more technological solutions, and increasing the susceptibility to planet wide disaster even more.
John Casti proposes the following catastrophic disaster scenarios which could set back human civilization by centuries or even by millennia. None of the possibilities are impossible or flights of fancy. All are very real possibilities, with the only difference being in their level of probability. The disaster scenarios are as follows:
* A long-term, widespread failure of the internet
* Breakdown of the global food supply system
* Continent-wide electromagnetic pulse destroys electronics
* A collapse of globalization
* Destruction of Earth through the creation of exotic particles
* Destabilization of the nuclear landscape
* Drying up of world oil supplies
* A global disease pandemic
* Failure of the electrical power grid and clean water supply
* Intelligent robots overthrow humanity
* Global deflation and collapse of world financial markets
For me, the power of the book is how John Casti combines a complete overview of the susceptibility of the many global systems, with a series of very credible scenarios that could set back human civilization for at least many decades. The author provides a powerful wake up call for those who believe that our complex and interconnected worldwide systems are safe from catastrophe. In fact, the author provides compelling evidence that this very complexity, that was designed and created to avoid system wide failure, is what makes the systems vulnerable in the first place.
John Casti doesn't go the doom and gloom route, that many other books do in the apocalyptic genre, despite his warnings of potential systemic failure. The author is not trying to scare people. He is seeking ideas and solutions to the challenges faced by an ever more complex set of systems. The primary goal of the book is to discover new ways of assessing and evaluating risk in areas where statistical analysis and probability theory are inadequate. By examining these possibilities, in a realistic and systems based format, the author creates a new field of study in the form of X-events theory.
I highly recommend the real world focused and systems analysis based book X-Events: Complexity Overload and the Collapse of Everything by John Casti, to any business leaders, global theorists, political leaders, public policy makers, engineers, scientists, academics, environmentalists, and anyone else seeking a clear and concise assessment of the risks inherent in the complexity of modern systems. This book will guide you toward realistic analyses of risk and risk management, and some real solutions to those challenges as well.