The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages as well as the volume of both purchase and refinance applications. The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.
The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage (from FHA and conforming GSE data) increased 1 basis point to 4.44% since last week while the purchase application volume declined 3% and the refinance application volume decreased 4% over the same period.
Rates now appear to possibly be trending down after weeks of explosive increases that saw a rise of over 100 basis points seemingly directly correlated with the Feds recent suggestion that they may start to wind down GSE purchases later this year.
It appears now though that Chairman Bernanke's latest comments might have worked to provide a bit more clarity surrounding the Feds plans for QE thereby working to halt the recent run-up in rates.
The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages since 2006 as well as the purchase, refinance and composite loan volumes (click for larger dynamic full-screen version).